"Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny." -- unknown

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - Albert Einstein

I'm a gamblin' man
September 10, 2007 - 10:36 pm

Some ponderings? Sure.

Some musings? Sure.

Even if the change is only apparent to me, that's more than all that matters.

In that vein... I gave in to an impulse I had few days ago. You see, I do like to gamble - we all know I like poker. Poker, however.. is well, fun to play, not so good for making money; at least not for me. Now and then I'll have a good night, but I assure you... any games made are quickly lost.

So.. I was thinking, what's a safer way to do some gambling? Being football season, I didn't need to think too hard. I'd already put up a whopping $20 in a fantasy league and had created a couple other free (autodrafted) teams as well.

I know me... and I'll slowly get pulled into tweaking the lineups. I love to tweak. I love to fiddle. I do. Give me something that doesn't really have a "right" answer, but is really right in an aesthetic sort of way and I'll meddle with it incessantly. Such is fantasy football.

You draft one at a time... so you can never have a team of only the best players, but with a league of 8 teams, everyone has stars. The meddling is in the 2nd tier players... the ones who play good one game and suck the next. The tinkering is in trying to look ahead at who has what bye and plays what opponent and is most likely to have an up game. It's largely (if not solely) guess work.

In that vein, and with gambling in mind, I said I can pick two or three winners a week. All you need to do is go with the sure bets and you're guaranteed (more or less) to make money. All the better if you skip the spread and go with the moneyline -- of course, you'll win less.. but you'll still in.

So in that split second of pondering, I found a site.. nosed around a bit and joined. I made four bets -- one of them with the 'free' money I got for signing up.

Game One was easy to pick - Steelers overs Browns; screw the points. Winner? Yes, easy.

Game Two was also pretty easy - Pats over Jets; this time I took (layed?) the points, a whopping -7. Winner? You betcha.

Game Three was well, a fools errand - Chiefs over Houston; again fuck the points... I want simple winners. I know what I was thinking. Houston has sucked for years and the Chiefs have Larry Johnson. Rather I wasn't really thinking, I was just being foolish looking for a game to pick. I should have skipped this one, I lost.

Game Four was another fools errand - Bengals over Ravens; moneyline again. As the game got closer and I realized just how close this was going to be and with one loser already.. I was muttering to myself. Cursing myself for betting with my heart, thinking 'Sure the Bengals have the 2nd best qb and they can take the Ravens.' Never mind the realities of football and that a good defense generally beats a good offense. On the plus side, a game I'd never have watched.. held my attention all damn night. Up and down, muttering and cursing.. whimpering and praying. It came down to the final series.. a mind numbing turn of events caused by a fumble. Yeah, all the Bengals had to do was not fucking fumble, run some time off the clock and, perhaps, just perhaps, kick a fucking field goal.

Instead, they fumble. Ravens get the ball so close to the endzone they can't help but score.. tieing the game or winning with a 2pt conversion. I know if they score, it's going include the conversion and I'll lose my money. Instead it's down to about the half yard line. A pass. A catch. A touchdown. I'm fucked.. until I see the flag. Offensive penalty. Back the fuckers up to the 10.5 and let's try this again.

It's fourth down. They need the touchdown or it's over. The pass. No catch, but another flag. The football gods are pissing themselves laughing at this one. Defensive penalty... put the ball on the 5 and give the offense four fresh downs. Yeah, four fucking downs to go 5 fucking yards.

They get the ball to the 2. How can they not run the ball 2 yards? How can they not score now? Again, I'm fucked.

They pass... and, I'm stupefied. What I'd been mutter for happened. Interception. No flags. Bengals ball. Games over. Nothing to do but kneel...

I'm 3 out of 4. Lesson learned? You betcha, think before I bet. Nail biters are nice, but It's more about winning some cash, no? If I want to mentally flog myself, I'll delve into the world of teasers and prop bets.

Another lesson learned, Loca's not so keen to dance with me. I can't really blame her.

Btw, I look to be 4 for 4 for my fantasy teams too. I'm on a hot streak.

I'm already looking at next week's games. The odds look all funky to me, but it's early. Why +10 to Buffalo? +13.5 to the Chiefs? Screw the points, I don't know enough for that. I'll have to wait for them to post the moneyline.