"Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny." -- unknown

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - Albert Einstein

how lucky am i?
August 12, 2006 - 12:04 pm

in other other news.. i'm slowling coming around to the conclusion that online poker sites (at least the one i play on) aren't legit -- by that i mean the cards are less than random.

first, yes i know.. any computer program, by definition, isn't random.. some algorithm controls the cards.

my point is that.. the site makes money off the rake (% of the final pot) and so it does have something of an interest in having pots be as big as possible...

for example, last night i played.. and pretty much couldn't lose -- a wicked hot streak that took me from about $50 to over $200 (betting 2/4 limit) in about 50 dealt hands. basically winning $3 a hand, whether i played or not.. which, in 2/4 is pretty darn high.

i left.. quite happy with my winnings and went back a little later just to pass the time.. and i couldn't win.

first go round, i'd be dealt 8 2 in the big blind and sure as shit, the flop would be 88A and i'd clean up.

second go round, i'd be dealt AK and the flop would come AKJ and i'd lose to a straight.

my point.. is that in the first go round, i was the "lucky" one (and it always seems there's one per table) who just can't lose. it's foolish to go against them.. sure you hand may look good, but i assure you.. 9 times out of 10 on the streak they will have the 'one' hand you just can't imagine someone having.

in the second go round, i was the reverse.. the one person who can't seem to buy a win -- no matter what. there's usually 10 people on a table, so the rest are somewhere in between..

it's rather like a scale is used.. if you're in the "lucky" seat, you're golden, if you're in the shit seat.. it doesn't matter what you do.

do i really believe this? i'm not sure.. given the volume on the site.. i'd like to think they don't need to do anything -- they are making a shitload to start with.. and if people really thought it was rigged in some way, they wouldn't play.

in the handful of times i've played at foxwoods, i've seen some crazy runs of luck -- a guy who flopped a straight flush, a full house and quads all in about one hours worth of play. that's just insane.. and i can't pretend foxwoods cared.. they don't take a rake.

i also understand the law of large numbers.. which basically says.. governs the idea of streaks and crazy cards that hit.. even something that's a one in a million chance will happen.. given enough chances. let's face it.. in cards, the highest the odds get is one in fifty-two... ergo, it may seem totally implausible, but heck.. that's just the preception of it.

what's my point? i don't know.. i won.. i lost.. and i'm all the more sure it has nothing to do with my skill.. just how lucky i am on any given day.