"Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny." -- unknown

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results - Albert Einstein

iraq
October 02, 2005 - 7:53 pm

"To the best of my knowledge, the status in Iraq is as follows:

The Sunnis have partially reformed the old Iraqi army. They are attacking US and Iraqi troops in a straight forward attempt to regain Sunni control of Iraq. Their major fear is that they will be isolated by the Kurds and Shia, as the Sunni territory has no natural resources of its own. Their citizens also believe that the Shia and Kurds are naturally inferior to the Sunni.

The Shia are heavily divided. There are several major clerics, each with their own militia. For the most part they are content to spar politically and let the US bear the burnt of the Sunni insurgency. Their end goal is to retain control over Iraq's oil supply, most of which is in Shia territory.

The Kurds have a fairly strong army, and are mostly united. They are staying quiet so as not to alarm the Turks, but have helped pacify the Sunnis on the Kurdish border. They want to to retain control over a slice of Iraq's oil supply, some of which is in Kurdish territory, and use their autonomous region as the kernel of a larger Kurdish state.

Foreign terrorists have come in from Iran and Syria. Their goal is to weaken the US; the fate of Iraq doesn't really concern them. They spend most of their time trying to incite civil war between the Shia and Sunnis by killing Sunni citizens in extremely nasty ways. On the plus side, they have little support among the Iraqis.

The government of Iraq is weak, and lacks popular support. It has a substantial army and a police force, but both of these are heavily infiltrated by Sunni insurgents. The Sunni and Kurdish armies, and the Shia cleric's militias, are the real powers. The government is seen by the Sunnis as a pawn of the Shia and Kurds, and its constitution as an attempt by those groups to without oil revenue from the Sunnis.

Syria wants to ensure that the Sunni maintain power over Iraq. The last thing Syria wants is a Shiite country on their border. They are supplying both the insurgents and terrorists with cash and equipment.

Iran wants to ensure that the Shia gain control over Iraq. The last thing Iran wants is a Sunni country on their border. They are supplying the Shia militias with cash and equipment.

Israel wants to ensure that Iran doesn't gain a foothold in Iraq. They are supplying the Kurd militias with training, and are building listening posts on the Kurdish border with Iran.

Turkey wants to ensure that the Kurds don't gain an autonomous base in Iraq, as they fear that would be the first step to a separate Kurdish state which would include Eastern Turkey. They are angry at the US and Israel for supporting the Kurds, but have yet to act on that.

Saudi Arabia believes that Iraq will splinter into civil war. They are predicting that this will grow into a three-way regional war between Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. They are simultaneously trying to prevent and prepare for this.

The US has deployed its troops around Sunni territory in an attempt to protect the Shia and Kurds. The US is trying to buy time to make the Shia self-sufficient, in the hope that strong Shia and Kurd territories will force the Sunnis to negotiate in exchange for oil revenue."

why do i post this? what's going on in iraq is not as simple.. and as easy as our troops are dying and we need to withdraw now. at least it isn't to me. i view this from a larger perspective. people are people and i don't value someone's life more or less depending upon where they are born.

most people i know post knee-jerk reactions to the situation. perhaps the best course is that we withdraw now. i'll buy that when i read the arguement for what would happen once we are gone.. and that outcome is satisfactory.

by satisfactory.. i mean less people (not just less american's) becoming dead.